Module 2 / Lesson 5
What Makes Managing Existential Risk Hard?
Opening Scenario: The Nuclear Weapons Safety
After Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world was extremely aware of the harm that nuclear weapons could bring, particularly in a nuclear war between countries. Despite the huge risks to humanity posed by nuclear weapons, several countries still have them in numbers large enough to kill most people. It would be easy to avoid this risk if all countries just chose not to make nuclear weapons, but that is not what has happened. If we know the stakes and know what to do, why do societies still fail to act?
This lesson explores why managing existential risk is so uniquely difficult, even when knowledge and intention are in place.
Lesson Focus & Why It Matters
- Public Goods & Free-Riding – In Lesson 5.1, you will learn how self-interested may want to avoid bearing the costs of common resources; shared responsibility often means no one does enough. We will explore these concepts generally so you learn what they are independent of existential risk.
- Existential Risk as a Global Public Good – In Lesson 5.3, you will learn how these ideas of public goods and free-riding applies to existential risks. In particular, we will explore Toby Ord's view that existential risk is a classic global public good, so that individuals under-invest in preventing existential risks.
- Game Theory & Prisoner's Dilemma – In Lesson 5.2, you will learn how strategic conflict can sometimes cause rational choices by individuals to lead to outcomes that are worse for everyone. We will explore these concepts generally so you learn what they are independent of existential risk.
- Existential Risk as a Racing (Prisoner's Dilemma) Problem – In Lesson 5.3, you will learn how these ideas about game theory apply to existential risks. In particular, it can be optimal for individuals to rush to be the first to develop dangerous (AI or nuclear) technology even if it would be better for everyone if we collectively moved more cautiously.
How This Lesson is Structured
- Lesson 5.1 Public Goods, Tragedy of the Commons, and Externalities
- Lesson 5.2 Prisoner’s Dilemma and Game Theory
- Lesson 5.3 Coordination Problems and Racing Problems in Existential Risks
Learning Outcomes
- Explain why rational actors often fail to prevent known risks
- Use game theory to analyze coordination failures
- Evaluate why institutions fall short on global challenges
- Consider real solutions to improve cooperation on existential risk
Your progress stays in this browser.