Trends and Risk Assessment

Measuring and Managing Nuclear Risk

• Learning:
  • Read Ord, pages 100–102.
  • Briefly explore these three agreements intended to reduce the frequency or severity of nuclear war:
    • START Treaties: Bilateral treaty between the US and Soviet Union to reduce number of nuclear weapons.
    • Treaty of Tlatelolco: Made Latin America a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone.
    • Budapest Memorandum: Ukraine's 1994 agreement to end nuclear weapons program in exchange for security guarantees. (Note that this did not go well for Ukraine, as these security guarantees were not honored and Ukraine is currently involved in a war with Russia.)
  • Visit the Doomsday Clock to see how close we are to "midnight".
  • Watch the videos below. Who has nukes video is too long?  Can we get a shorter one or maybe an infographic instead?
• Reflection:
  • Consider the difference between treaties that reduce the number of weapons (severity) versus the number of countries with weapons (frequency).
  • Which of the agreements you learned about above seemed relatively effective or ineffective?
  • How likely is nuclear war? What factors push the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight?

Overview: Who Has Nukes?

Deterrence & Game Theory

Watch on YouTube