Module 3 / Lesson 7.3
Historical Close Calls
Examining the fragility of deterrence through three moments where the world nearly ended by accident.
Historical Close Call Incidents (Ord pp. 96–97)
- Learning:
- Read Ord, pp. 96–97 on close-call incidents.
- Watch ONE of the two video case studies below.
- Thinking Tasks: As you read, think about these summary notes:
- 1979 Training Tape Incident: A training scenario of a massive Soviet attack was accidentally loaded into the live NORAD computer system. National Security Advisor Brzezinski was seconds away from waking the President when the mistake was caught.
- 1983 Autumn Equinox (Petrov): A Soviet satellite mistook sunlight reflecting off clouds for 5 incoming US missiles. Stanislav Petrov judged it a false alarm because "the US wouldn't start a war with only 5 missiles."
- 1995 Norwegian Rocket Incident: A scientific rocket studying the aurora borealis was mistaken by Russian radar for a Trident missile. President Yeltsin activated his nuclear briefcase for the first time in history.
Video Case Studies (Watch One)
Option 1: The Norwegian Rocket Incident (1995) How a simple scientific experiment was mistaken for a nuclear attack, leading to a presidential activation.
Option 2: The Man Who Saved the World (Petrov 1983) The story of Stanislav Petrov, who defied protocol to prevent a nuclear counter-strike based on faulty satellite data.
Discussion: The Closest Call
- Which one of these seems like the "closest" or scariest to you and why? (If you watched a video, focus on that incident.)
Final Step: You have explored the history of nuclear risk. Proceed to the final lesson in this module.
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