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01Measuring and Managing Risks

Welcome to Module 1✓1Introduction to Normal Risks✓1.1Describing Risks✓1.2Risk Perception, Risk Attitudes, and Risk Management✓1.3Categories of Risk Management Strategies✓1.4Definition of Existential Risk✓2Risk Settings, Risk Preferences, and Strategies to Manage Risks✓2.1Risk and Loss Without Insurance✓2.2Insurance as Risk Reduction✓2.3Expected Value and Actuarial Fair Premiums✓2.4Risk Preferences and Expected Utility✓2.5Prevention: Self-Protection vs Self-Insurance✓2.6Saving as Risk Management Strategy✓2.7Information & Early Warning✓2.8Recovery✓2.9Managing Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks✓

02Assessment of Existential Risks

Welcome to Module 2✓3Foundations of Existential Risk✓3.1Arc of History: Humanity’s Progress & Power✓3.2The Anthropocene - Humanity’s Unique Era✓3.3Defining Existential Risk & Catastrophe✓4Ethics, Cultures, and Perspectives✓4.1An Introduction to Three Categories of Ethical Systems✓4.2Applying Ethics - Open Questions & Difficult Dilemmas✓4.3Ethics of Existential Risk✓5What Makes Managing Existential Risk Hard?✓5.1Public Goods and Externalities✓5.2Strategic Interactions, Prisoner's Dilemma and Game Theory✓5.3Public Goods and Racing Problems in Existential Risks✓

03Specific Existential Risks

Welcome to Module 3: Specific Existential Risks✓6Natural Risks✓6.1Asteroids & Comets✓6.2Supervolcanoes & Other Natural Risks✓6.3Estimates of Total Natural Existential Risk✓6.4Tools to Estimate Existential Risks✓6.5Aggregation Systems✓7Nuclear Risks✓7.1Risks of Developing Nuclear Weapons✓7.2Consequences of Nuclear War✓7.3Historical Close Calls✓7.4Trends and Risk Assessment✓8Climate Risks✓8.1Introduction to Climate Change✓8.2Sources of Climate Change Uncertainty✓8.3Climate Change as Existential Risk✓8.4Managing Climate Risk✓9Pandemics✓9.1Introduction to Infectious Diseases✓9.1.1What Are They? Types of Infectious Agents✓9.1.2What Do Infectious Agents “Want”?✓9.1.3Co-evolution of Animals and Infectious Diseases✓9.1.4Infectious Diseases as Weapons✓9.2Intro to and History of Pandemics✓9.2.1Pandemic and R₀✓9.2.2Historical Frequency and Sizing of Pandemics✓9.2.3Major Examples of Pandemics✓9.2.4Societal Responses to Pandemics✓9.3Pandemics in Modern World✓9.3.1Modern defenses against pandemics✓9.3.2Modern Threats of Pandemics✓9.4Pandemics and the Future✓9.4.1The Ability to Use Technology to Design Infectious Disease✓9.4.2Ability to Use Technology to Make New Medicine✓9.4.3New Tools for Pandemics as Strategic Weapons✓

04Existential Risk from AI

Welcome to Module 4✓10AI Landscape & Capabilities✓10.1Toby Ord's Perspective on AI Risk✓10.2Moore's Law✓10.3History: 10 Milestone Events in AI✓10.4Measuring AI Ability by Task Length✓10.5Thousands of Authors on Future of AI✓11AI Risk and Challenges✓11.1What Makes AI an Existential Risk?✓11.1.1Is AI Amazing or Terrible?✓11.1.2AI Risk: Misuse and Misalignment✓11.1.3What Experts Think✓11.2Challenges in Managing AI✓11.2.1Coordination & Racing Challenge✓11.2.2Externalities Problems from AI✓11.2.3Monitoring and Instrumental Convergence✓12Management of x-Risk from AI✓12.1AI x-Risk Management Strategies✓12.2AI 2027 Scenario✓12.3P-Doom Movie✓12.4Debates & Policy✓

05Future of Humanity

Welcome to Module 5 13The Risk Landscape✓13.1The Risk Landscape✓13.2The Great Filter, Why the Landscape is Empty✓14Survival & Beyond✓14.1What to Do, What Not to Do✓14.2Our Potential✓A final message✓

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Course overview/Welcome to Module 5: Future of Humanity

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Module 5

Welcome to Module 5: Future of Humanity

This module brings together the risk landscape, the choices available to humanity, and our long-term potential.

Module 5: Future of Humanity

13 The Risk Landscape
13.1 The Risk Landscape
13.2 The Great Filter, Why the Landscape is Empty
14 Survival & Beyond
14.1 What to Do, What Not to Do
14.2 Our Potential

← PreviousDebates & Policy Next →The Risk Landscape

x-Risk Course · Existential Risk: An Open Course

Designed and led by Professor Stephen H. Shore. Online contributors: Abbad Ali and Suyog Thengale.

Course overview · Team · Start here

Original course materials © Stephen H. Shore · CC BY-NC 4.0. Third-party materials retain their own terms.