Module 3 / Lesson 6.3

Estimates of Total Natural Existential Risk

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In this lesson, we zoom out from specific threats to ask the big question: How much existential risk do we face from all natural sources combined? You will examine the historical track record of Earth to understand the "background rate" of extinction.

Lesson 6.3: Estimates of Total Existential Risk from All Natural Risks

Learning: Read The Precipice (p. 80-87) [Ignore box on p. 84 on Survivorship Bias for now. We will come back to it.]
Reflection. While you are learning this material, consider these questions:
- Understand how much existential risk we face from all natural sources combined?
- How can we use historical data to estimate the frequency of natural risks?
- How long have species typically survived? How long have humans lived so far? What does this tell us about the rate at which natural risks cause human or other animal extinction?
- How often has Earth faced a natural risk bad enough to kill most species?

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