Module 3 / Lesson 6
Natural Risks
This lesson explores risks that humanity has faced for its entire history. You will examine specific threats like asteroids and supervolcanoes, and learn the tools scientists use to estimate the probability of rare, catastrophic events.
Before You Begin, Consider:
- Learning: The sub-lessons in Lesson 6 will include readings from Ord and other resources.
- Reflection: As you study this lesson, consider the following:
- Why do we distinguish between "natural" risks and "anthropogenic" (human-made) risks?
- How can we predict events that haven't happened in recorded history?
Lesson Blocks
- Lesson 6.1: Asteroids & Comets
Near-Earth Objects, the dinosaur extinction, and planetary defense. - Lesson 6.2: Supervolcanoes & Other Natural Risks
The difference between prevention and mitigation, and the scale of volcanic winters. - Lesson 6.3: Estimates of Total Natural Existential Risk
Aggregating natural risks and understanding the "background rate" of extinction. - Lesson 6.4: Tools to Estimate Existential Risks
Prospective modeling, survivorship bias, and aggregation systems (prediction markets). - Lesson 6.5: Aggregation Systems
How an aggregation system converts messy information into the "One Number" Concept
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